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coronavirus?
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 Posted: Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 02:24 am

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BlackwellSooner wrote:
A long article, but I think that it makes lots of sense.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Wow, that article makes soooooo many assumptions. Maybe all of them are correct, but then again, maybe not.

Here's a different perspective by Mike Rowe, the guy from the Dirty Jobs show. (I don't think there's anything in here that could be considered political.)


https://www.facebook.com/TheRealMikeRowe/posts/3119126308097491
Mike Rowe
March 19 at 5:58 PM

Mike – I just re-watched your Safety Third special on DVD. Genius. Couldn’t help but wonder your current take, since you and 7 million of your neighbors in the Bay Area have been ordered to “shelter in place.” What do you think? Is it unreasonable to wonder if this is all a giant overreaction?
Greg Marsh

Hi Greg –

It’s true. I’ve been sent to my room for the next three weeks. And yes, I do have some thoughts on the length of my sequestration, and the role of safety in the age of coronavirus.

For the uninitiated, I coined the expression “Safety Third” back in 2008, during an episode of Dirty Jobs. It was a smart-ass way for me to challenge the ubiquity of those Safety First banners, and debunk the popular notion that safety was always the most important thing on the job site.

After years of Safety First indoctrination, and a front row seat to it's unintended consequences, “Safety Third,” became a slightly subversive way for my crew and I to remind each other that our safety was in fact, our responsibility, and that no amount of compliance could ever keep us out of danger. Safety, I argued, was not a value to be “ranked,” but rather, a state of mind to be maintained. Thus, “Safety Third” became an hour-long special that stirred up a great deal of conversation around personal responsibility, risk equilibrium, and the unintended consequences of ranking Safety above everything else.

Which of course, is precisely what our leaders are doing right now.

Today, in the name of safety, the United States of America has been shut down. Which brings me to your question – are we overreacting?

I honestly don’t know. I’m not an expert, and I’m in no rush to be labelled a “virus denier.” But I am concerned that the medicine we’re prescribing might turn out to be more deadly than the virus we’re trying to kill – especially if we don’t know the criteria by which we can re-emerge from our bunkers. And I’m not alone.

Here’s a rather remarkable article I saw this morning, by a medical professor at Stanford named John Ioannidis.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

I think it’s vital to read and consider every word. It’s a measured, data-driven analysis of what we’re doing based on the actual evidence at hand. As the headline reads, Dr. Ioannidis believes we are making monumentally impactful decisions without reliable data. Measures this draconian, he argues, demand a lot more evidence than what we’ve seen so far.

Is he right? Beats me. But he is a very respectable doctor at a very respectable institution with some very respectable credentials.

Here too, is another article offers some context from the situation in Italy, which most of the headlines do not.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/over-99-of-coronavirus-patients-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/

Apparently, 99% of those who died over there, suffered from a myriad of pre-existing conditions. Are we looking at similar numbers over here? Are 99% of those who die from this virus already sick? How many here would have succumbed if this were just a really bad flu season, and how would their deaths be reported on the news?

Again, I don’t know. But I do know that recessions and depressions can impact a country in ways no less catastrophic than a pandemic. And we are most assuredly headed for both, if we continue to operate from a “Safety First” state of mind. Because “Safety First” is never a long-term solution.

For instance, after 9/11, we grounded all the planes for a while, because we needed some time to understand what the hell was going on. And, because we were terrified by an enemy we didn’t understand. But soon, we grew weary of being scared. We introduced new protocols to eliminate as much of the risk as we could and got back to the business of living.

Back in 1939, when London was being bombarded every single day, Britons were understandably terrified. They spent their days and nights in air raid shelters, hoping and praying the German bombs didn’t fall on them. Then, after a few weeks of unrelenting terror, they too, got bored with being scared. They reopened the shops. They reopened the schools. Even as the bombs fell on them, Britons adjusted to a new set of circumstances, and got back to the business of living. Why? Because safety was no longer first.

But this too, is part of the problem. We are being bombarded everyday with facts and information with extreme urgency but no context. Imagine for a moment, if the millions of automobile accidents in America were reported on with the same frenzied, up-to-the minute drama as each new virus infection? Imagine if all 40,000 annual automotive fatalities from those accidents, were announced in the same fashion as every virus fatality. Would any of us ever drive again?

To repeat, I don’t know if we’re overacting, but the manner in which the information is being disseminated suggests the situation is already catastrophic. Is it? According to Dr. Ioannidis, we’re treating a virus that MIGHT have devastating consequences, in a way that will GUARANTEE devastating consequences.

Personally, as an avowed non-expert with a large Facebook following, I do think a temporary shutdown makes sense, while we gather more information and answer some pressing questions. Who exactly does this affect? How exactly is it passed? Can you develop an immunity? Does it mutate and if so, how often? And of course, it's worth repeating that the lockdown wont work unless everyone participates, which is easier to do in Wuhan than it is during Spring Break in this country. Consequently, people are arguing over which is worse - hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, or another Great Depression. Unfortunately, I think that misses the point. I think the worst-case scenario, is both.

Consider this from Dr. Michael Osterholm, who’s quickly becoming one of the most respected voices in this space.

“This is not going to be like a blizzard,” he said, “this is a “coronavirus winter. It will last for months and months. A lot of people have made a decision to cancel events, large meetings, schools, etc., but what they haven't thought about is what it means if they make the decision to do this now. Tens of thousands of healthcare workers have kids in school. What will that do to their ability to care for the sick? Who will watch their kids?”

Remember, this is the man whose been telling us for years exactly what’s coming. And he’s been right at every turn. But he’s also telling us that shutting down the whole country for long periods of time is not the answer.

“How exactly, do you unring that bell?" he wonders. "If you put these closures into place now, with no criteria, how do you in August, September, or whatever, say OK, we're no longer going to do this anymore? If you didn't quarantine with criteria, what’s your criteria for getting back to normal?”

As I wrote the other day, it feels to me like America is going through the five stages of grief at varying speeds. Some of us are still in denial, some are angry, some are bargaining, some are depressed, some have accepted some version of the reality in which we currently find ourselves, and all of us are trying to keep up with the latest information which is bombarding us from all sides. The evidence is obviously sparse, but it would be a mistake in my view, to not treat this thing very, very seriously. If our hospitals become overrun with virus victims, the rest of the population will have no healthcare system at all. But, it’s equally dangerous to think that a long-term shutdown is the answer.

I don’t say this lightly. I have two elderly parents solidly in the “at risk” group, and believe me, I want to do all I can to protect them. But I also know that Safety First is no way to live indefinitely. We are at base, a Safety Third nation. We can’t remain in the air raid shelter indefinitely – if we do, they’ll be no country left, when we finally emerge.

Anyway Greg, your question is not at all unreasonable. I just wish I had a better answer.
Mike

tbmguy
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 Posted: Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 04:12 am

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tbmguy wrote:
Don’t know if I’ve said before but I’m an airline pilot. Today was my first day at work since Trump’s address announcing a European travel ban last week.

First leg was a domestic deadhead to position for work. Was on a plane with 181 seats. Had 29 total passengers. There were 16 first class seats. Only 8 passengers seated in first class. Of those 8, all but 1 were crewmembers either deadheading to position or commuting to work.

The leg I actually worked? We had 2 passengers. Both of which were company employees exercising their non-rev benefits. I did not see them but if I had to guess, they were commuters going home after working a trip.

Everywhere I saw, In the terminal at gate stations, food service stations, or in the airplane around the seats and tray tables, there were people wiping down surfaces with disinfectant. Me and the FO certainly did our part in the cockpit. People are trying but it’s probably not going to be enough to save the industry.


Adding more to my experience here.

That trip I referenced, I had picked it up to make a little extra cash on my days off, seemed prudent given what seems to be coming. Normally, I only work maintenance/repo flights because of my 'special' position. In a panic, company decided they need to park a bunch planes... NOW. They decided to pull me off my trip that I was working on my days off (never done this before) to move a bunch of plane, and I do mean a BUNCH of planes, to a designated 'parked' location.

Not a good time for our industry. We went from the biggest pilot hiring wave in the history of the industry just a couple of weeks ago to staring down the barrel of what might be the largest furloughs in the history of the industry. Everyone is down.

formulaS
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 Posted: Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 02:02 pm

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Here some encouraging news from a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist. He's been pretty accurate so far with his analysis and forecasting.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

OU Chinaman
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 02:47 am

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...pretty sure I've had more posts deleted than anyone still active on this forum. Wear it as a badge of honor.
This one will probably be just another post in a long list of deleted ones.

I'm not afraid to confront what I disagree with.
Whether it's SOONER football, or religion, or politics or anything else. Wrong is wrong! Dishonest is dishonest. Extortion is extortion!!!

Some would think that makes me dangerous.

And probably they're right!
I'm a little edgy. A little controversial, because I don't give a f**k. The few here that know me, will consider what I'm about to say, and know I speak from the heart.

Our country is in the middle of a crisis, the likes of which haven't been seen in more than a century.

We're all in trouble. Life as we know it has irrevocably changed. All of us are living this. Politics shouldn't even be a consideration, after all, it's against the rules to even discuss it on this forum.

But, I would posit that just maybe, rules be damned in real world circumstances such as these.

Our Republic, the elected representatives charged with governing our free society are engaged in an attempt to mitigate this crisis. To demonstrate bipartisan effort to help us all. It's a grave & sacred responsibility. They will be held accountable by history.

And I dare say, one side of the aisle is failing us all.
They're exploiting a crisis to further their own political agenda. Every delay means more deaths.

That it means more people will die is of no concern to them. They have a gun to the head of the other side of the aisle. It's nothing but Extortion!

It is disgraceful. Metaphorically speaking, I spit in their face. And if that's your side of the aisle, that means you. You personally. You can't abide this.

There's a bill meant to help small business, individuals, and the medical industry on the table in the Senate.
It needs to pass.

It needs to pass NOW!!!

Anything extemporaneously legislated not directly involved in mitigating the current covid19 crisis is not only an insult to American citizens, but in my opinion, criminal.

Potentially, sedition or even treason.,

If you're fortunate enough to read this post before it's deleted, I welcome, I encourage your reply!

GOD BLESS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
I LOVE MY COUNTRY.
I FEAR IT'S POLITICIANS.

I PRAY FOR MY FAMILY, MY FRIENDS, AND THOSE OF LIKE MIND.

TO HELL WITH THE REST OF YOU!

:ou::ou::ou:::rice::

SoonerMike
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 03:17 am

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We need a reasoned response to a very difficult economic problem, caused by a medical pandemic. BUT...It would be nice if our elected officials had time to read it, including the fine print, before voting.
And all grants and loans need to be public, and with oversight.
Time is of the essence, but please, no more pigs in the poke
We really do need to work together, have patience and compassion for others faults, and work for the common good.

tbmguy
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 04:00 am

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Chinaman, I agree with the intent of your post.

While there are relief details I prefer about the other side, their inclusion of all kinds of things that have nothing to do with the pandemic or the economy are absolutely disgusting. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), I’m not a constituat of any one on that side of the isle so they’re not going to listen to my opinion.

soonerBAS
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 02:42 pm

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I agree most of what China said up above, I really don't want to get into politics but this horrible virus and the way it change all of our lives seems like for once an item besides sports that could be discussed.

sometimes you even learn something, like this morning I read a news story posted on an OU board talking about how the virus could stay on shoe soles for up to 5 days and how you should leave your shoes at the front door or in the garage.

Fly
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 04:09 pm

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David you & I are both true patriates & vets. We have known each other for years, & no two guys could share
a fox hole in battle knowing that the other has his back covered. When we grew up Americans were different as a
whole than today. I,m only speaking of some. I often wonder when us old war dogs are gone how many will take
this country for granted. We are going to get through this
& many will learn from it. But others will just complain.

I agree to the letter with you. Can't wait till our West Point trip & watch the smile on your face.

Fly:ou:

SoonerMike
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 05:19 pm

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OU Chinaman wrote

And I dare say, one side of the aisle is failing us all.
They're exploiting a crisis to further their own political agenda. Every delay means more deaths.

The disagreement I have is to blame only one side for using this crisis for political purpose. Both sides have tried to both help the country and gain a little edge for their own political beliefs. Some news outlets point out one side, others point out the other side. Neither is all the truth.

UNRELATED TO THIS DISCUSSION.... Also, as a combat vet I resent those who say that to disagree with any particular viewpoint is unpatriotic. Veterans came from all walks of life with different beliefs, religions, races, and now different sexes. Blood spilled doesn't have politics. So please, if you disagree with someone's viewpoint, don't use the unpatriotic accusation.

OU Chinaman
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 06:09 pm

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SoonerMike wrote:
OU Chinaman wrote

And I dare say, one side of the aisle is failing us all.
They're exploiting a crisis to further their own political agenda. Every delay means more deaths.

The disagreement I have is to blame only one side for using this crisis for political purpose. Both sides have tried to both help the country and gain a little edge for their own political beliefs. Some news outlets point out one side, others point out the other side. Neither is all the truth.

UNRELATED TO THIS DISCUSSION.... Also, as a combat vet I resent those who say that to disagree with any particular viewpoint is unpatriotic. Veterans came from all walks of life with different beliefs, religions, races, and now different sexes. Blood spilled doesn't have politics. So please, if you disagree with someone's viewpoint, don't use the unpatriotic accusation.


...I'm a veteran (E-5 over 9) and I agree with what you say about vets.

But, I went back & read my post and don't see where I challenged or impugned anyone's patriotism other than politicians. I challenge "them" all! Both sides.

I'm referring specifically to the corona virus aid bill.
When I say "of like mind" that doesn't mean political beliefs, or religious beliefs, or SOONERE football opinion.

Again, I'm speaking specifically about a 1400 page bill introduced by the Speaker of the House. That one proposed bill. If anyone supports THAT, then think I've made my feelings clear.

Safe to say we can agree to disagree.:cool:

Stay safe, SoonerMike!

:ou::ou::ou:::rice::

SoonerMike
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 06:43 pm

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OU Chinaman wrote:
SoonerMike wrote:
OU Chinaman wrote

And I dare say, one side of the aisle is failing us all.
They're exploiting a crisis to further their own political agenda. Every delay means more deaths.

The disagreement I have is to blame only one side for using this crisis for political purpose. Both sides have tried to both help the country and gain a little edge for their own political beliefs. Some news outlets point out one side, others point out the other side. Neither is all the truth.

UNRELATED TO THIS DISCUSSION.... Also, as a combat vet I resent those who say that to disagree with any particular viewpoint is unpatriotic. Veterans came from all walks of life with different beliefs, religions, races, and now different sexes. Blood spilled doesn't have politics. So please, if you disagree with someone's viewpoint, don't use the unpatriotic accusation.


...I'm a veteran (E-5 over 9) and I agree with what you say about vets.

But, I went back & read my post and don't see where I challenged or impugned anyone's patriotism other than politicians. I challenge "them" all! Both sides.

I'm referring specifically to the corona virus aid bill.
When I say "of like mind" that doesn't mean political beliefs, or religious beliefs, or SOONERE football opinion.

Again, I'm speaking specifically about a 1400 page bill introduced by the Speaker of the House. That one proposed bill. If anyone supports THAT, then think I've made my feelings clear.

Safe to say we can agree to disagree.:cool:

Stay safe, SoonerMike!

:ou::ou::ou:::rice::


You did not say anything about anyones patriotism, did not mean that and I do not think you have ever said anything bad about anyones patriotism. I was just flashing back to others comments not on this board.
I was specifically saying that the Senate Bill had just as much crap as the House Bill. Both sides try to slip things in along with required legislation. The Pot and the Skillet calling the other side out. And some of fine print that will come out later in the approved bill is going to stink.

We sure as he!! are in this together, and the way to get thru it is to try to work together.

formulaS
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 10:29 pm

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Here's an interesting link from Johns Hopkins University that has an interactive map that continuously updates the numbers for every country.

Using the Admin buttons on the bottom left you can view the numbers by state and county.

I think the Daily Increase tab on the bottom right is the main indicator for determining when the virus has peaked for a country.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

formulaS
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26th, 2020 10:29 pm

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A visual representation of where COVID-19 currently ranks among the history of pandemics. (updated thru 3/26)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

Last edited on Thu Mar 26th, 2020 10:38 pm by formulaS

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formulaS wrote: A visual representation of where COVID-19 currently ranks among the history of pandemics. (updated thru 3/26)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/Neat graphic. I love things like this. Of course, the key term here is "currently". We'll develop a vaccine for this virus and effective antivirals will be developed/identified and employed. However, the societal/political/economic/geographical structures in the US are not capable of "flattening the curve" as many other nations have been able to achieve.

At the current rate of daily increases in the US, we will have 1.3 million new cases (JUST ON THAT SINGLE DAY) two weeks from now. There will be 1.8 million new cases the next day and 2.3 million new cases the day following that. Unless there is some miraculous American exception to the rule all other nations have been experiencing....this is what we will experience. Most of the US increase is coming form NYC. However, the numbers are starting to go exponential in New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Miami. Hell, even where "stay at home" orders have been issued the numbers are tending exponential.
Now....let's look at just the three days that I mentioned....1.3 million, 1.8 million and 2.3 million. That's a total of 5.4 million people. With a case mortality of just 1% (and it's higher than this), that's 54,000 dead. In just THREE DAYS!!!! This matches the average yearly death toll of "no worse than the flu" for the ENTIRE YEAR in the United States. Take into account the strain on health services and the "tough decisions" that will have to be made on who gets a ventilator and who doesn't.......I think the 1% case mortality will be much higher...maybe several multiples higher.

Heck....even the with "stay at home" orders where I live (Texas) if there is a store that's open, people are packed into it....buy...buy...buy....spread....spread....spread.

The graphic mentions 23.1 thousand dead as of 3/26...yesterday. It now stands at 24.7 thousand at 8 AM this morning. This is the GLOBAL COUNT since the outbreak started three-and-a-half months ago. The numbers I gave above....expected two weeks from now.....are JUST FOR THE US over the course of THREE DAYS.
This will be the defining event of almost everyone alive today....IMO.

Not much we can do about it, though. We have to eat....we have to engage in economic activity. Warnings have been given for more than 50 years about such an event. Let's learn and move on.




soonerBAS
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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 01:58 pm

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you know what I hate is there's little getting away from it, it's everywhere not just the news but even the commercials are all about it, normally when things are bad you can turn on a football or basketball game and for a couple hours clear your mind.

still I told someone I feel lucky living in rural Oklahoma, I can go check my cows, work in the garden, go for a walk on the creek,but people in apartments and condo's and nowhere to get outside really, man that's got to be tough.

thing i'm hearing right now from customers is how hard it is on the kids, no play dates, no little league, can't go to the park playground because the equipment is roped off.

formulaS
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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 03:05 pm

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StatesEye wrote:
formulaS wrote: A visual representation of where COVID-19 currently ranks among the history of pandemics. (updated thru 3/26)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/Neat graphic. I love things like this. Of course, the key term here is "currently". We'll develop a vaccine for this virus and effective antivirals will be developed/identified and employed. However, the societal/political/economic/geographical structures in the US are not capable of "flattening the curve" as many other nations have been able to achieve.

At the current rate of daily increases in the US, we will have 1.3 million new cases (JUST ON THAT SINGLE DAY) two weeks from now. There will be 1.8 million new cases the next day and 2.3 million new cases the day following that. Unless there is some miraculous American exception to the rule all other nations have been experiencing....this is what we will experience. Most of the US increase is coming form NYC. However, the numbers are starting to go exponential in New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Miami. Hell, even where "stay at home" orders have been issued the numbers are tending exponential.
Now....let's look at just the three days that I mentioned....1.3 million, 1.8 million and 2.3 million. That's a total of 5.4 million people. With a case mortality of just 1% (and it's higher than this), that's 54,000 dead. In just THREE DAYS!!!! This matches the average yearly death toll of "no worse than the flu" for the ENTIRE YEAR in the United States. Take into account the strain on health services and the "tough decisions" that will have to be made on who gets a ventilator and who doesn't.......I think the 1% case mortality will be much higher...maybe several multiples higher.

Heck....even the with "stay at home" orders where I live (Texas) if there is a store that's open, people are packed into it....buy...buy...buy....spread....spread....spread.

The graphic mentions 23.1 thousand dead as of 3/26...yesterday. It now stands at 24.7 thousand at 8 AM this morning. This is the GLOBAL COUNT since the outbreak started three-and-a-half months ago. The numbers I gave above....expected two weeks from now.....are JUST FOR THE US over the course of THREE DAYS.
This will be the defining event of almost everyone alive today....IMO.

Not much we can do about it, though. We have to eat....we have to engage in economic activity. Warnings have been given for more than 50 years about such an event. Let's learn and move on.



I don't think I'm on board with this statement...

"However, the societal/political/economic/geographical structures in the US are not capable of "flattening the curve" as many other nations have been able to achieve."


My guess is that we will see a decline in the daily increase in 2-3 weeks... we shall see.

formulaS
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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 03:37 pm

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soonerBAS wrote:
you know what I hate is there's little getting away from it, it's everywhere not just the news but even the commercials are all about it, normally when things are bad you can turn on a football or basketball game and for a couple hours clear your mind.

still I told someone I feel lucky living in rural Oklahoma, I can go check my cows, work in the garden, go for a walk on the creek,but people in apartments and condo's and nowhere to get outside really, man that's got to be tough.

thing i'm hearing right now from customers is how hard it is on the kids, no play dates, no little league, can't go to the park playground because the equipment is roped off.


Public and private golf courses have been exempted by the governor from closing. I think its a good option for getting out of the house while limiting contact with other people.

I've had the kids out twice this week. Probably going to head out there again this afternoon.

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 04:02 pm

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I told myself I wouldn't get involved with discussing stats on this forum but when you only look at one side of an equation utilized in developing a model you can get wild projections. For instance, how many tests have been performed, how many of those resulted in a positive, how many positives resulted in a total recovery versus how many died, etc. We are only in day 11 of the nation wide lock down so the numbers are going to be wild for a while. As this is going on, if you don't adjust the models to reflect the current "on the ground real life data not projections" you can paint a very scary picture. For example the current recovery rate continues to grow every day but is not reflected in the models, we are getting better every day at curing people. The last time I looked at the rate of recovery in the U S it increased by approx. 250% in two days, once again because of low numbers this will also swing wildly but the trend is definitely up. Also for reference I only look at CDC numbers as a constant. Lastly remember NY City and Miami were supposed to be under water based on weather models several years ago. BOOMER !!

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 04:33 pm

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pattisonr wrote:
I told myself I wouldn't get involved with discussing stats on this forum but when you only look at one side of an equation utilized in developing a model you can get wild projections. For instance, how many tests have been performed, how many of those resulted in a positive, how many positives resulted in a total recovery versus how many died, etc. We are only in day 11 of the nation wide lock down so the numbers are going to be wild for a while. As this is going on, if you don't adjust the models to reflect the current "on the ground real life data not projections" you can paint a very scary picture. For example the current recovery rate continues to grow every day but is not reflected in the models, we are getting better every day at curing people. The last time I looked at the rate of recovery in the U S it increased by approx. 250% in two days, once again because of low numbers this will also swing wildly but the trend is definitely up. Also for reference I only look at CDC numbers as a constant. Lastly remember NY City and Miami were supposed to be under water based on weather models several years ago. BOOMER !!

(y):beer:(y)

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 05:19 pm

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Yes & one you left out. They reported the US has tested
more people than any other country. That in it,s self would exposé more cases. No telling how many have had it
all over the world & never knew it. It does not effect every one the same.

Fly:ou:

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 06:40 pm

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Fly wrote:
Yes & one you left out. They reported the US has tested
more people than any other country. That in it,s self would exposé more cases. No telling how many have had it
all over the world & never knew it. It does not effect every one the same.

Fly:ou:


This, plus you can't trust China, tells you it is hard, really impossible, to get any useful information from the data that is available.

Last edited on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 06:41 pm by humblesooner

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 07:32 pm

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With the 1918 Spanish Flu 50 million died world wide ( this was going on at the same time as WW1). That was over 100 years ago.. no internet, no Telework and back then if you got pretty sick you either made it or you didn't, no ventilators ... etc. I'm not advocating we all die, just saying if there was not shelter in place and everyone was just going about their business as usual, it probably wouldn't be any worse, 200 million, ( adjusted for population growth in the last 100 years) than the Spanish flu. I don't know which is worse hiding from it, or just going along as usual and hoping for the best.

Last edited on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 08:33 pm by captnop

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 07:40 pm

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formulaS wrote: StatesEye wrote:
formulaS wrote: A visual representation of where COVID-19 currently ranks among the history of pandemics. (updated thru 3/26)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/Neat graphic. I love things like this. Of course, the key term here is "currently". We'll develop a vaccine for this virus and effective antivirals will be developed/identified and employed. However, the societal/political/economic/geographical structures in the US are not capable of "flattening the curve" as many other nations have been able to achieve.

At the current rate of daily increases in the US, we will have 1.3 million new cases (JUST ON THAT SINGLE DAY) two weeks from now. There will be 1.8 million new cases the next day and 2.3 million new cases the day following that. Unless there is some miraculous American exception to the rule all other nations have been experiencing....this is what we will experience. Most of the US increase is coming form NYC. However, the numbers are starting to go exponential in New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Miami. Hell, even where "stay at home" orders have been issued the numbers are tending exponential.
Now....let's look at just the three days that I mentioned....1.3 million, 1.8 million and 2.3 million. That's a total of 5.4 million people. With a case mortality of just 1% (and it's higher than this), that's 54,000 dead. In just THREE DAYS!!!! This matches the average yearly death toll of "no worse than the flu" for the ENTIRE YEAR in the United States. Take into account the strain on health services and the "tough decisions" that will have to be made on who gets a ventilator and who doesn't.......I think the 1% case mortality will be much higher...maybe several multiples higher.

Heck....even the with "stay at home" orders where I live (Texas) if there is a store that's open, people are packed into it....buy...buy...buy....spread....spread....spread.

The graphic mentions 23.1 thousand dead as of 3/26...yesterday. It now stands at 24.7 thousand at 8 AM this morning. This is the GLOBAL COUNT since the outbreak started three-and-a-half months ago. The numbers I gave above....expected two weeks from now.....are JUST FOR THE US over the course of THREE DAYS.
This will be the defining event of almost everyone alive today....IMO.

Not much we can do about it, though. We have to eat....we have to engage in economic activity. Warnings have been given for more than 50 years about such an event. Let's learn and move on.



I don't think I'm on board with this statement...

"However, the societal/political/economic/geographical structures in the US are not capable of "flattening the curve" as many other nations have been able to achieve."


My guess is that we will see a decline in the daily increase in 2-3 weeks... we shall see.47....the policies implemented in nations that "hammered" the curve successfully would not be acceptable in our society. Having an army of "officials" patrolling the streets....taking temperatures and performing mandatory tests....and anyone testing positive or simply having a fever were forcefully placed in quarantine. This happened in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and less so in Japan. THIS would not be accepted here!!!!
Not only that....when these nations "ease" off of these policies their numbers start increasing......fast!. No western nation has been able to arrest the exponential nature of the curve. You might see a day or two were the numbers look like....7K, then 9K, then 8K...but the next day is 15K. This is the case everywhere in Europe and here.
Italy restricted travel between whole towns in the north of the country when their numbers were 7 thousand nationally. Today they are 80.5K last check. They will likely be above 90K at the end of the day.

Lastly....if the curve is flattened in two to three weeks....that necessarily means the numbers I posted earlier will be a reality. The curve needs to flatten NOW to avoid this.

I have never been more hopeful that I'm wrong on anything than this....

We are going to pay a heavy price for being the way we are as a nation, and I certainly wouldn't want to change what we are to avoid what is coming.....but it IS coming. I have every confidence that we will whip this MF'er when it's all said and done. The US is already doing more on the research side of things than any other. We'll take risks....do what it takes and probably lead the world out of this......but it will definitely not be the model the Chinese have offered, which is oppression. Again...we'll pay a heavy price for this....it just happens to be "our time".

Be well and be smart about this.

Last edited on Fri Mar 27th, 2020 07:42 pm by StatesEye

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 08:37 pm

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What ever happens, China needs to be brought to task for letting this get out the way they did. They could have contained it much better.

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 09:27 pm

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pattisonr wrote:
I told myself I wouldn't get involved with discussing stats on this forum but when you only look at one side of an equation utilized in developing a model you can get wild projections. For instance, how many tests have been performed, how many of those resulted in a positive, how many positives resulted in a total recovery versus how many died, etc. We are only in day 11 of the nation wide lock down so the numbers are going to be wild for a while. As this is going on, if you don't adjust the models to reflect the current "on the ground real life data not projections" you can paint a very scary picture. For example the current recovery rate continues to grow every day but is not reflected in the models, we are getting better every day at curing people. The last time I looked at the rate of recovery in the U S it increased by approx. 250% in two days, once again because of low numbers this will also swing wildly but the trend is definitely up. Also for reference I only look at CDC numbers as a constant. Lastly remember NY City and Miami were supposed to be under water based on weather models several years ago. BOOMER !!

I agree that looking at number of cases is pretty useless. It's annoying that 'number of cases' is the headline or main talking point for nearly every story. I've been trying to follow the daily number of deaths instead.

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 Posted: Fri Mar 27th, 2020 11:17 pm

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bowhuntr wrote:
What ever happens, China needs to be brought to task for letting this get out the way they did. They could have contained it much better.



The whole world needs to punish them and severely.

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 Posted: Sat Mar 28th, 2020 01:52 am

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StatesEye wrote: formulaS wrote: A visual representation of where COVID-19 currently ranks among the history of pandemics. (updated thru 3/26)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/Neat graphic. I love things like this. Of course, the key term here is "currently". We'll develop a vaccine for this virus and effective antivirals will be developed/identified and employed. However, the societal/political/economic/geographical structures in the US are not capable of "flattening the curve" as many other nations have been able to achieve.

At the current rate of daily increases in the US, we will have 1.3 million new cases (JUST ON THAT SINGLE DAY) two weeks from now. There will be 1.8 million new cases the next day and 2.3 million new cases the day following that. Unless there is some miraculous American exception to the rule all other nations have been experiencing....this is what we will experience. Most of the US increase is coming form NYC. However, the numbers are starting to go exponential in New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Miami. Hell, even where "stay at home" orders have been issued the numbers are tending exponential.
Now....let's look at just the three days that I mentioned....1.3 million, 1.8 million and 2.3 million. That's a total of 5.4 million people. With a case mortality of just 1% (and it's higher than this), that's 54,000 dead. In just THREE DAYS!!!! This matches the average yearly death toll of "no worse than the flu" for the ENTIRE YEAR in the United States. Take into account the strain on health services and the "tough decisions" that will have to be made on who gets a ventilator and who doesn't.......I think the 1% case mortality will be much higher...maybe several multiples higher.

Heck....even the with "stay at home" orders where I live (Texas) if there is a store that's open, people are packed into it....buy...buy...buy....spread....spread....spread.

The graphic mentions 23.1 thousand dead as of 3/26...yesterday. It now stands at 24.7 thousand at 8 AM this morning. This is the GLOBAL COUNT since the outbreak started three-and-a-half months ago. The numbers I gave above....expected two weeks from now.....are JUST FOR THE US over the course of THREE DAYS.
This will be the defining event of almost everyone alive today....IMO.

Not much we can do about it, though. We have to eat....we have to engage in economic activity. Warnings have been given for more than 50 years about such an event. Let's learn and move on.




And not to be the bearer of bad news. Really....I despise this, but folks need to be aware of what is really happening. The graphic mentioned a global death toll of 23.1 thousand at the end of the day yesterday. At 9 PM central US time...the death toll is 27.3 thousand. This is an increase of 18.1% in less then 24 hours. Exponential in every sense of the word.
I'm sorry if I upset anyone........please take care of yourselves.

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 Posted: Sat Mar 28th, 2020 03:08 am

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...have started carrying a cannister of Chlorox wipes & latex gloves in my car. Use them to wipe down the cylinders at the drive through when doing banking transactions and the gas pump when refilling my vehicle.

Have a locked door now at the insurance agency where I work daily, note on the door advising business conducted only by phone & e-mail. No face to face contact until further notice.
If documents are needed, can slide them under the door.

If I wasn't living this, wouldn't even believe it.

The very last person I encountered at the agency was a guy I've known for 22 years. Jet engine mechanic at Tinker AFB. Sat across from my desk. We fist bumped & joked about the new reality. Next day I saw there were 3 confirmed cases at TAFB.:?

Still, I ain't skeered!

Always been too stupid to be afraid of anything or anybody.

Audacity has always been my calling card.

If disease or death smiles at me,...

I'LL JUST SMILE BACK!

:ou::ou::ou:::rice::

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 Posted: Sat Mar 28th, 2020 03:28 am

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I am in a small town in western Oklahoma Life hasnt changed drastically but it has changed.

Bank doors are locked and drive thru only. Everything is open including the restaurant which surprises me.

At my place I have a business plus issue car tags, I'm letting people in but I have a sign up that if they prefer I will come out to them and get papers. I wipe everything down after each customer and wash hands after each one, sick of the smell of cleaning products

Went to the farm built fence this evening and enjoyed it, no tv, no computer, no news fresh air and hard work felt good.

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 Posted: Sat Mar 28th, 2020 03:59 am

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OU Chinaman wrote:
The very last person I encountered at the agency was a guy I've known for 22 years. Jet engine mechanic at Tinker AFB.

Hmmm, sounds like someone I've known for longer. Does he play a guitar?

Last edited on Sat Mar 28th, 2020 04:01 am by tbmguy


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