SoonerSports.com link
Oklahoma Sooner YouTube Channel

Search
   
Members

Calendar

Help

Home
Search by username
Not logged in - Login | Register 


coronavirus?
 Moderated by: sybil, EMan, ClintA.Adams, ArmySooner  

New Topic

Reply

Print
AuthorPost
tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Mon May 18th, 2020 10:49 pm

Quote

Reply
Fly wrote:
tbmguy wrote:
Fly wrote:
I don't know about the stats but it has killed a lot of people world wide, no question about that. I don,t think
we should take it lightly & let it get out of hand. If people would do what experts are telling them to do I think we will be find. But so many are not. Wear a mask &
wash your hands & keep your distance. It not a hard thing to do. JMOHOP Fly


I guess it depends on who you consider an expert. So much of this has been politicized that I think you have to learn to read the data yourself and come to your own conclusion.
You made my point! You question what
we are being told. The entire world are wearing mask & washing there hands, & keeping distance. So because being
skeptical we should not be doing it?? Makes no sense.

I will do my part no matter, right are wrong for I want this over with. People questioning how many deaths or if
we should prescribe to parodical does help this one bit.
This was my point, & if people won't listen then it is on you, not me.

JMOHOP Fly


It's the shifting message. When the lock-downs first started, it was about flattening the curve so that we wouldn't overwhelm our health system and give our health authorities a chance to learn how to treat it. When the lock-downs started, it was only meant to last a few weeks. People were OK with that.

However, our health experts tend to only view things from the prism of health, not economics or human condition. So, from them, now the message seems to be we need to lock down until this thing is all gone. That won't happen until a vaccine is in widespread production and people know that. People also know that's not likely until next year at best. Throw in all the lost jobs and people have had enough.

This is why you can't just listen to the health experts. They're always going to state their view from their bubble and you need to read the data and come to your own decision on what the right balance is.

I'm a believer in the Hammer and the Dance method. We flattened the curve with the hammer, now it's time to dance. Experiment with opening things up and watch Rt. Keep Rt at 1 or less, we'll be fine. If it goes above 1, time to scale some things back again.

Currently, only two states are above R1. I'd be willing to bet none of the posters on this site are in those two states.

I have no problem with someone else coming to a different conclusion but you can't just say "health experts say this...". It's more complicated than that.

For what it's worth, I wear my mask, most of the time (breathing fogs up my glasses when wearing the mask so I have to choose how important it is to see for the given situation). I keep my distance when I can and do so consciously. Also I wash my hands often (even carry a little bottle of hand sanitizer now too).

Keeping your hands clean so as not to spread it I think is the single biggest thing we can do.

Last edited on Mon May 18th, 2020 10:52 pm by tbmguy

SoonerVikeThunder
Member
 

Joined: Wed Aug 15th, 2018
Location: OKC, Oklahoma USA
Posts: 1502
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Mon May 18th, 2020 11:29 pm

Quote

Reply
K2C Sooner wrote:
Well, I laughed.:dude:

Stolen from a poster on TFB.:lol:



Lol thats a good one

StatesEye
Member
 

Joined: Mon Aug 27th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 1122
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Wed May 20th, 2020 01:17 am

Quote

Reply
tbmguy wrote: Fly wrote:
tbmguy wrote:
Fly wrote:
I don't know about the stats but it has killed a lot of people world wide, no question about that. I don,t think
we should take it lightly & let it get out of hand. If people would do what experts are telling them to do I think we will be find. But so many are not. Wear a mask &
wash your hands & keep your distance. It not a hard thing to do. JMOHOP Fly


I guess it depends on who you consider an expert. So much of this has been politicized that I think you have to learn to read the data yourself and come to your own conclusion.
You made my point! You question what
we are being told. The entire world are wearing mask & washing there hands, & keeping distance. So because being
skeptical we should not be doing it?? Makes no sense.

I will do my part no matter, right are wrong for I want this over with. People questioning how many deaths or if
we should prescribe to parodical does help this one bit.
This was my point, & if people won't listen then it is on you, not me.

JMOHOP Fly


It's the shifting message. When the lock-downs first started, it was about flattening the curve so that we wouldn't overwhelm our health system and give our health authorities a chance to learn how to treat it. When the lock-downs started, it was only meant to last a few weeks. People were OK with that.

However, our health experts tend to only view things from the prism of health, not economics or human condition. So, from them, now the message seems to be we need to lock down until this thing is all gone. That won't happen until a vaccine is in widespread production and people know that. People also know that's not likely until next year at best. Throw in all the lost jobs and people have had enough.

This is why you can't just listen to the health experts. They're always going to state their view from their bubble and you need to read the data and come to your own decision on what the right balance is.

I'm a believer in the Hammer and the Dance method. We flattened the curve with the hammer, now it's time to dance. Experiment with opening things up and watch Rt. Keep Rt at 1 or less, we'll be fine. If it goes above 1, time to scale some things back again.

Currently, only two states are above R1. I'd be willing to bet none of the posters on this site are in those two states.

I have no problem with someone else coming to a different conclusion but you can't just say "health experts say this...". It's more complicated than that.

For what it's worth, I wear my mask, most of the time (breathing fogs up my glasses when wearing the mask so I have to choose how important it is to see for the given situation). I keep my distance when I can and do so consciously. Also I wash my hands often (even carry a little bottle of hand sanitizer now too).

Keeping your hands clean so as not to spread it I think is the single biggest thing we can do.
(y)(y)

Triple Option
Member


Joined: Mon Oct 25th, 2010
Location: Pleasant Hill, MO
Posts: 3187
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Thu May 21st, 2020 03:20 pm

Quote

Reply
So now we have hundreds of doctors saying that the health effects of shutting everything down could be worse than the health effects of the virus itself. (I'm sure that within a day or two we'll see other doctors arguing with them about it and around and around we'll go.)

But the article had this quote:

McDonald is referring to the misconception that business closures and stay-at-home orders aimed at "flattening the curve" are meant to reduce the total number of people who will fall ill because of the coronavirus. Rather, these curve-flattening measures are meant largely to reduce the number of people who are sick at any given time, thus avoiding a surge in cases that overwhelms the health care system and causes otherwise preventable deaths because not all patients are able to access lifesaving critical care.

McDonald said that "hospitals are not only not overwhelmed, they're actually being shut down." He noted that at one hospital in the Los Angeles area where Dr. Simone Gold, the head organizer of the letter, works "the technicians in the ER have been cut by 50 percent."


Unless we're going to hide in our basements forever, we're all likely to be exposed eventually. Delaying it might be helpful for those who are at risk, from the standpoint that they will figure out better treatments as time goes on. There may or may not eventually be a vaccine (decades later, there is still no vaccine for the HIV virus). But for most people, there's not a big advantage in avoiding exposure.

That's on a societal scale. On an individual level, it becomes a very different equation. My mother-in-law is 88 years old and has heart issues. My wife does a lot of things for her. Frankly, even though I'm over 60, overweight, and have high blood pressure, I personally would rather go ahead and get exposed and get it over with and quit all this tomfoolery, but I don't want to run the risk of endangering my mother-in-law.

So, in conclusion: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad:


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doctors-raise-alarm-about-health-effects-of-continued-coronavirus-shutdown

Walt
Administrator


Joined: Fri Apr 13th, 2007
Location: The High Plains Of NW Oklahoma.
Posts: 15475
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Thu May 21st, 2020 06:05 pm

Quote

Reply
Triple Option wrote:
So now we have hundreds of doctors saying that the health effects of shutting everything down could be worse than the health effects of the virus itself. (I'm sure that within a day or two we'll see other doctors arguing with them about it and around and around we'll go.)

But the article had this quote:

McDonald is referring to the misconception that business closures and stay-at-home orders aimed at "flattening the curve" are meant to reduce the total number of people who will fall ill because of the coronavirus. Rather, these curve-flattening measures are meant largely to reduce the number of people who are sick at any given time, thus avoiding a surge in cases that overwhelms the health care system and causes otherwise preventable deaths because not all patients are able to access lifesaving critical care.

McDonald said that "hospitals are not only not overwhelmed, they're actually being shut down." He noted that at one hospital in the Los Angeles area where Dr. Simone Gold, the head organizer of the letter, works "the technicians in the ER have been cut by 50 percent."


Unless we're going to hide in our basements forever, we're all likely to be exposed eventually. Delaying it might be helpful for those who are at risk, from the standpoint that they will figure out better treatments as time goes on. There may or may not eventually be a vaccine (decades later, there is still no vaccine for the HIV virus). But for most people, there's not a big advantage in avoiding exposure.

That's on a societal scale. On an individual level, it becomes a very different equation. My mother-in-law is 88 years old and has heart issues. My wife does a lot of things for her. Frankly, even though I'm over 60, overweight, and have high blood pressure, I personally would rather go ahead and get exposed and get it over with and quit all this tomfoolery, but I don't want to run the risk of endangering my mother-in-law.

So, in conclusion: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad:


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doctors-raise-alarm-about-health-effects-of-continued-coronavirus-shutdown


Here is my bottom line on this issue. Continuing this crazy mandatory quarantine is going to literally destroy our whole economy. Continuing the fallout from losing our small business sector will simply crush us. We have to open up business regardless of the risk of the coronavirus.

ClintA.Adams
Administrator
 

Joined: Tue Jul 24th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 15703
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Thu May 21st, 2020 09:25 pm

Quote

Reply
Things that should stay in place is companies with VPN infrastructures in place should continue to have office personnel working from home whenever possible. In some cases, companies could shutter facilities outright if they have several facilities and could save a lot of money doing so.

ClintA.Adams
Administrator
 

Joined: Tue Jul 24th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 15703
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Thu May 21st, 2020 09:28 pm

Quote

Reply
Walt wrote:
Triple Option wrote:
So now we have hundreds of doctors saying that the health effects of shutting everything down could be worse than the health effects of the virus itself. (I'm sure that within a day or two we'll see other doctors arguing with them about it and around and around we'll go.)

But the article had this quote:

McDonald is referring to the misconception that business closures and stay-at-home orders aimed at "flattening the curve" are meant to reduce the total number of people who will fall ill because of the coronavirus. Rather, these curve-flattening measures are meant largely to reduce the number of people who are sick at any given time, thus avoiding a surge in cases that overwhelms the health care system and causes otherwise preventable deaths because not all patients are able to access lifesaving critical care.

McDonald said that "hospitals are not only not overwhelmed, they're actually being shut down." He noted that at one hospital in the Los Angeles area where Dr. Simone Gold, the head organizer of the letter, works "the technicians in the ER have been cut by 50 percent."


Unless we're going to hide in our basements forever, we're all likely to be exposed eventually. Delaying it might be helpful for those who are at risk, from the standpoint that they will figure out better treatments as time goes on. There may or may not eventually be a vaccine (decades later, there is still no vaccine for the HIV virus). But for most people, there's not a big advantage in avoiding exposure.

That's on a societal scale. On an individual level, it becomes a very different equation. My mother-in-law is 88 years old and has heart issues. My wife does a lot of things for her. Frankly, even though I'm over 60, overweight, and have high blood pressure, I personally would rather go ahead and get exposed and get it over with and quit all this tomfoolery, but I don't want to run the risk of endangering my mother-in-law.

So, in conclusion: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad: :soonermad:


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doctors-raise-alarm-about-health-effects-of-continued-coronavirus-shutdown


Here is my bottom line on this issue. Continuing this crazy mandatory quarantine is going to literally destroy our whole economy. Continuing the fallout from losing our small business sector will simply crush us. We have to open up business regardless of the risk of the coronavirus.



I said that from the very beginning despite a compromised immune system. A devastated economy would cause more short term damage AND long term damage than this virus and in far greater numbers. The only issue of course with doing it early is the medical system would have been overwhelmed. It was a tough call either way but time to get back to business.

Soonerheart1
Member
 

Joined: Sat Aug 17th, 2019
Location: Oklahoma USA
Posts: 159
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Thu May 21st, 2020 10:14 pm

Quote

Reply
Get out in the sun without burning

https://whdh.com/news/vitamin-d-could-be-linked-to-covid-19-survival-study-suggests/

WHDH) — Vitamin D deficiency may be linked to higher mortality rates from COVID-19, a new study suggests.

Research published by medRxiv found that coronavirus infections and deaths were higher in countries where individuals had lower vitamin D levels, such as Spain and Italy, compared to other counties where vitamin D levels were higher.

“Our finding suggests that Vit D may reduce COVID-19 severity by suppressing cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients,” researchers from Northwestern University wrote.

SoonerTony
Member
 

Joined: Sat Dec 1st, 2018
Location:  
Posts: 135
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 01:08 am

Quote

Reply
If we don’t get our economy going again, there won’t be anything left, for those who survive the virus, to come back to. Those who are vulnerable should continue to take precautions, but businesses must have the choice to re-open.

OU Chinaman
Member


Joined: Sun Nov 8th, 2015
Location: Blanchard
Posts: 3358
Country of Origin: 
Signature: OU, OU, OU!!!
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 02:40 am

Quote

Reply
...things are beginning to get out of hand,

State and local governments are trampling civil rights by playing on fear.
They are our elected representatives, nothing more
Americans need to be vigilant, especially during a crisis.

Tyranny advocated as "for your own good" is anything but!

Pay attention. 
Something wicked this way comes.


:ou::ou::ou:::rice:: 




StatesEye
Member
 

Joined: Mon Aug 27th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 1122
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 01:12 pm

Quote

Reply
The "numbers" are not as bad as first projected for two main reasons, imo. One, the lockdowns implemented hammered the curve in the worst-hit areas. In essence, the lockdowns worked. So, it's silly to believe that we overreacted, especially in the hot spot areas, with lockdowns because the numbers are not as bad as modeled without the lockdowns. Two, the models were generalized. They did not (and cold not) take into account things like population density, reliance on mass transit in some areas as compared to others, etc. In essence a one-size-fits-all approach is doomed to be wrong. 

Just like a one-size-fits-all approach is a stupid policy choice with lockdown enforcement. (e.g. what is necessary for the Detroit is completely inappropriate for most of Michigan) a one-size-fits-all policy is not the way to go when come to "opening up".


>>>>>
I just deleted a rather long post. It's just not worth the effort. People are going to believe what they want to believe until this virus or devastated economy (eventually it'll be both) punches them in the freaking mouth.


tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 01:45 pm

Quote

Reply
StatesEye wrote:
The "numbers" are not as bad as first projected for two main reasons, imo. One, the lockdowns implemented hammered the curve in the worst-hit areas. In essence, the lockdowns worked. So, it's silly to believe that we overreacted, especially in the hot spot areas, with lockdowns because the numbers are not as bad as modeled without the lockdowns. Two, the models were generalized. They did not (and cold not) take into account things like population density, reliance on mass transit in some areas as compared to others, etc. In essence a one-size-fits-all approach is doomed to be wrong. 

Just like a one-size-fits-all approach is a stupid policy choice with lockdown enforcement. (e.g. what is necessary for the Detroit is completely inappropriate for most of Michigan) a one-size-fits-all policy is not the way to go when come to "opening up".


>>>>>
I just deleted a rather long post. It's just not worth the effort. People are going to believe what they want to believe until this virus or devastated economy (eventually it'll be both) punches them in the freaking mouth.




I didn't have a problem with the lockdown as originally put forth (a few weeks). But it's gone on well more than long enough. We have enough testing and an abundance of ventilators now. I doubt anyone will knowingly send china flu patients into nursing homes anymore. And our health officials have had a chance to learn.

Open things up and watch Rt on regional basis and lock down the hot spots only. Allow the rest of the populations to be near but under R1 so that we can gradually build a heard immunity.

Triple Option
Member


Joined: Mon Oct 25th, 2010
Location: Pleasant Hill, MO
Posts: 3187
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 02:44 pm

Quote

Reply
StatesEye wrote:
The "numbers" are not as bad as first projected for two main reasons, imo. One, the lockdowns implemented hammered the curve in the worst-hit areas. In essence, the lockdowns worked. So, it's silly to believe that we overreacted, especially in the hot spot areas, with lockdowns because the numbers are not as bad as modeled without the lockdowns.
You may be correct that the numbers aren't worse because the lockdowns worked. The thing is, there isn't really any way to know that for sure, because we don't know what would have happened without the lockdowns. The states that didn't do lockdowns, but took more modified measures, didn't have huge outbreaks. Now, was it because of the differences in those places (lower population density, etc.), or because the lockdowns didn't make that much difference? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I don't think we can know for sure either way.

tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 02:57 pm

Quote

Reply
Triple Option wrote:
StatesEye wrote:
The "numbers" are not as bad as first projected for two main reasons, imo. One, the lockdowns implemented hammered the curve in the worst-hit areas. In essence, the lockdowns worked. So, it's silly to believe that we overreacted, especially in the hot spot areas, with lockdowns because the numbers are not as bad as modeled without the lockdowns.
You may be correct that the numbers aren't worse because the lockdowns worked. The thing is, there isn't really any way to know that for sure, because we don't know what would have happened without the lockdowns. The states that didn't do lockdowns, but took more modified measures, didn't have huge outbreaks. Now, was it because of the differences in those places (lower population density, etc.), or because the lockdowns didn't make that much difference? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I don't think we can know for sure either way.


If you look at the Rt data, you'll notice that by the time lockdowns went into place in each state A LOT were already below R1. While you can say Rt isn't everything (New York was so overwhelmed that by the time they got below R1, they need the lockdown to catch up), there's a strong argument that most of the country was unnecessarily restricted. But we didn't know at the time. We didn't have the data and everyone was afraid we'd end up like New York.

Last edited on Fri May 22nd, 2020 04:16 pm by tbmguy

Triple Option
Member


Joined: Mon Oct 25th, 2010
Location: Pleasant Hill, MO
Posts: 3187
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 04:28 pm

Quote

Reply
tbmguy wrote:
everyone was afraid we'd end up like New York.
These stats are as of May 11, so a little dated, but they still give you the idea of how concentrated this has been.

"The 30 counties with the most COVID-19 cases, for example, account for 48% of all the cases in the U.S. and 55% of all deaths, three to four times greater than their 15% share of the U.S. population. That is, just 1% of all counties, representing 15% of the U.S. population, are responsible for almost half of the country’s COVID-19 cases and more than half of the deaths. Of those 30 counties, 24 are in the Northeast corridor between Philadelphia and Boston, the passageway served by a commuter railway system that runs through Manhattan.

Overall, only about 10% of all counties contain 95% of all the COVID-19 deaths, even though they account for 64% of the population. Just as important, 50% of all counties (with 10% of the U.S. population) have zero COVID-19 deaths as of May 11. In fact, 63% of all counties (with 15% of the population) have no more than one COVID-19 death each. So, while 1% of counties (mostly in the Northeast) have more than half of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., 63% of counties have no more than one COVID-19 death each—and both groups represent the same share of the U.S. population."


https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/1-counties-home-half-covid-19-cases-over-half-deaths


Plus Cuomo forced nursing homes to take Covid-19 patients, which drove the death numbers up there.

I just don't know how much that extrapolates to the rest of the country. My guess is, not near as much as people thought it would. All the graphs that show nationwide figures may not mean a lot. I guess we'll find out.

tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 05:47 pm

Quote

Reply
Triple Option wrote:
tbmguy wrote:
everyone was afraid we'd end up like New York.
These stats are as of May 11, so a little dated, but they still give you the idea of how concentrated this has been.

"The 30 counties with the most COVID-19 cases, for example, account for 48% of all the cases in the U.S. and 55% of all deaths, three to four times greater than their 15% share of the U.S. population. That is, just 1% of all counties, representing 15% of the U.S. population, are responsible for almost half of the country’s COVID-19 cases and more than half of the deaths. Of those 30 counties, 24 are in the Northeast corridor between Philadelphia and Boston, the passageway served by a commuter railway system that runs through Manhattan.

Overall, only about 10% of all counties contain 95% of all the COVID-19 deaths, even though they account for 64% of the population. Just as important, 50% of all counties (with 10% of the U.S. population) have zero COVID-19 deaths as of May 11. In fact, 63% of all counties (with 15% of the population) have no more than one COVID-19 death each. So, while 1% of counties (mostly in the Northeast) have more than half of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., 63% of counties have no more than one COVID-19 death each—and both groups represent the same share of the U.S. population."


https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/1-counties-home-half-covid-19-cases-over-half-deaths


Plus Cuomo forced nursing homes to take Covid-19 patients, which drove the death numbers up there.

I just don't know how much that extrapolates to the rest of the country. My guess is, not near as much as people thought it would. All the graphs that show nationwide figures may not mean a lot. I guess we'll find out.


That's what I was referring too. It got really bad in New York and its immediate surrounding area. Everyone (by that, I mean our leaders from both parties) was afraid that it was inevitable that it would be like that everywhere, hence the lockdowns. We didn't have the data back then but looking back on it now, china flu was trending downward even before the lockdowns with a lot of states ordering lockdowns after being well into sub R1 territory.

Well, we have the data now. It's even based on real science. It's long overdue to open up.

StatesEye
Member
 

Joined: Mon Aug 27th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 1122
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 06:18 pm

Quote

Reply
There is no way to know with certainty that you'd have a head on collision going the wrong direction on a one way street. The odds are better not having one if you don't try it, though.

The "numbers" (new cases, new hospital admissions, patients on ventilators, deaths) were all on an exponential track in NYC. New cases not attenuate from that track until a week to 10 days (about the average incubation period) after lockdown. This is pretty good evidence (for me, anyway) that the lockdown in NYC, and similar hot spots, was the appropriate response and responsible for eventual decline in all of these numbers.


More evidence that lockdowns in NYC worked? Look at the different Rt numbers for NYC vs a state like Wyoming. Lockdowns, which in effect emulate a decrease in population density...or at least the interpersonal mixing within a high population density area, brought NYC closer in line with lower population density areas. Lockdowns work.

Now....are they appropriate everywhere for every situation? Of course not, but the so-called lockdowns in many areas were kind of a joke relative to NYC. For example, in my area (DFW), restaurants, bars, gyms, movie theaters, clothing retail, etc were closed. Many offices were closed. A huge number of people were "working from home". Now....my son works in the garden department at Lowes. He's never seen that area of the store so busy day after day in April. I drove by it once. It was packed full of work-from-home folks, and they were not social distancing around the register, either. What happened with the DFW numbers in April? During the first two weeks of April, new cases were increasing at a 12 to 15% daily rate. By mid April the rate dropped to around 4%....all during a time when "essential retailers" were as packed as I've ever seen them on weekdays with work-at-home shoppers. I mean think about this.....give a bunch of people extra autonomy to work when they want or shop when they want and send them all to a few local "essential retailers" every day for a month...the result is the number of new cases decreases!!!!?????. However, Texas started lifting restrictions on restaurants, bars, gyms, etc the first week of May. Sure enough, the number of new cases (and Rt) is starting to inch upwards. Hmmmmm.

We have to work. There is no getting around this. Keep up these widespread blanket shutdowns and people are gonna get very, very angry and possibly violent. You can't have a bunch of bureaucrats, officials, talking heads and academics (who are still getting a paycheck) preaching everyday that people can't work because its for "their own safety" and that they are "selfish" or "racist" (my particular favorite) for wanting to work and then expect them to "take it".....this will not go down in a peaceful manner in this country...... NOR, SHOULD IT.

There are going to be activities we can and cannot engage in, and I believe MOST activities that we are used to can go on as usual with some modifications...like having to wear a mask in certain situations.....yes...by law you will have to wear a mask in certain situations. Please spare "it's my constitutional right" BS concerning wearing a mask. It no more violates your rights than having to wear clothing in public....except wearing a mask probably has a better rationale behind it than clothing....lol. This is a national emergency akin to war. We need to mobilize our society similarly. It's not your patriotic duty to not wear a mask, but IT IS your patriotic duty to wear one....in certain situations.

Dine-in eating at restaurants and bars should be completely prohibited until this virus is whipped....and it will be, eventually. You cannot eat or drink while wearing a mask. Also, people sitting in an enclosed space for long periods of time is the main avenue of spread. This is pretty much firmly established. The virus spreads via aerosols the most effectively and the reason for it's very high Rt value in enclosed spaces. Perhaps movie theaters should be closed too.....less certain about this one. Crowded outdoor events should require masks. If data later indicates that these are a bad idea, then these should also be restricted in various ways to be determined. Regular shopping at other various retail centers where large groups of people are not sequestered for long periods of time should be fully open for business, but every one must wear a mask in these establishments. Walking outside....down the sidewalk in your neighborhood....no masks. Walking around outside in a moderately busy park....no mask. Driving in your car, no mask. These are some of the things we already know about the virus.


Another thing about masks....the federal government should be ramping up production, in partnership with private enterprise, of N-95 masks. These masks need to be abundant and cheap and these should be the only masks that are allowed under above restrictions. Yep...we'll need 10's of millions per day. It can be done, though and will provide needed employment. Restaurants and bars need help in finding ways to integrate into the "virus economy". Ways to increase throughput for carryout and/or retail of beef, poultry, produce and spirits can be found via these establishments. Churches??? fully open.....you have to wear a mask. Schools??? open...you have to wear a mask. Public tansit???? open...you have to wear a mask.


Next....we need a contact tracing plan that will work....maybe for another post. However, we cannot wait for one to be developed an implemented before we head back to work. It needs to be developed as we go, and the best time to do it is right now during the summer months.


Lastly, another wave is coming. Expecting that it will not is expecting that this pandemic behaves like no other in history.....that it just naturally roars on to the scene and then whimpers away. Sure hope for the best, but prepare in anticipation that it will be back.

Anyhoo....my rant. Really, having N-95 masks available. Requiring their use in certain situations, contact tracing and modifications in hardest hit industries will be enough (IMO) to keep Rt down below 1 with almost near full economic capacity until vaccine time. However, there will be outbreaks from time-to-time...and quick, deep, tailored and localized lockdowns will be necessary. 









tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 06:48 pm

Quote

Reply
Stateseye, I too expect a second wave but there's one thing I think you're missing. As this thing carries along, more and more people will have been exposed, recover, and develop an immunity. I strongly believe keeping Rt in sub R1 territory but I also think we're better off at R.9 rather than R.6 because:

1) it increases the rate of building to heard immunity in which a vaccine isn't even necessary, all the while keeping hospitalization rates low enough the health industry can stay on top of it.
2) when the second wave comes, more of us will be immune.
3) the more of us that are immune, the more we can open things up and keep Rt sub 1.

Also, those Rt numbers keep being updated even for days or weeks ago. I too have been following Texas closely since I live here. There was a time when Rtlive showed Texas at R.72. It now shows that it was never below R.89. Furthermore, it currently shows that Texas was at R.92 when the "shelter ended" (it's actually a limited reopening, not full) and that Texas still sits at R.92. These numbers do lag several days though so it may very well show something different in a week but it's hard for me to get worked up when the data currently shows pretty good stability and we're 22 days into this limited reopening.

Last edited on Fri May 22nd, 2020 06:50 pm by tbmguy

Soonerheart1
Member
 

Joined: Sat Aug 17th, 2019
Location: Oklahoma USA
Posts: 159
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Fri May 22nd, 2020 07:17 pm

Quote

Reply
Its everyone's job to know their risk factors and improve your personal odds by maintaining good personal health.This means isolation for some.

You need to know the risk factors for your loved ones and for those who you employ.

After this it's time for everyone who can work be allowed to work and resume their normal life's the best they can

Last edited on Fri May 22nd, 2020 07:18 pm by Soonerheart1

OU Chinaman
Member


Joined: Sun Nov 8th, 2015
Location: Blanchard
Posts: 3358
Country of Origin: 
Signature: OU, OU, OU!!!
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 02:35 am

Quote

Reply
...I pledge allegiance to the flag,
and to the Republic,

for which it stands,
one nation,
under God,
indivisible,
with liberty,
and justice,
for ALL!
Corona virus be damned!
(Sort of puts everything in perspective for me.)

:ou::ou::ou:::rice::

StatesEye
Member
 

Joined: Mon Aug 27th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 1122
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 04:26 am

Quote

Reply
tbmguy wrote: Stateseye, I too expect a second wave but there's one thing I think you're missing. As this thing carries along, more and more people will have been exposed, recover, and develop an immunity. I strongly believe keeping Rt in sub R1 territory but I also think we're better off at R.9 rather than R.6 because:

1) it increases the rate of building to heard immunity in which a vaccine isn't even necessary, all the while keeping hospitalization rates low enough the health industry can stay on top of it.
2) when the second wave comes, more of us will be immune.
3) the more of us that are immune, the more we can open things up and keep Rt sub 1.

Also, those Rt numbers keep being updated even for days or weeks ago. I too have been following Texas closely since I live here. There was a time when Rtlive showed Texas at R.72. It now shows that it was never below R.89. Furthermore, it currently shows that Texas was at R.92 when the "shelter ended" (it's actually a limited reopening, not full) and that Texas still sits at R.92. These numbers do lag several days though so it may very well show something different in a week but it's hard for me to get worked up when the data currently shows pretty good stability and we're 22 days into this limited reopening.I've long been a proponent of allowing this virus burn as hot as we can tolerate as long as vulnerable populations are sufficiently protected. It's a reasonable strategy to gain maximum economic output and so-called herd immunity. Herd immunity is a very important goal to move toward while we develop a vaccine.....no doubt.
Yes, people are going to die. There is no avoiding this. But I would like to mention that hundreds of thousands of Americans have sacrificed their lives to protect life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for others. This is no different. I'm not talking about sending throngs of Americans into a needless bloodbath.....we've done pretty good job of avoiding situations like this on the battlefield. However, LIFE demands risk, LIBERTY demands risk and certainly the PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS demands risk. We cannot be timid and we cannot be stupid.

Last edited on Sat May 23rd, 2020 04:28 am by StatesEye

tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 05:28 am

Quote

Reply
StatesEye wrote:
tbmguy wrote: Stateseye, I too expect a second wave but there's one thing I think you're missing. As this thing carries along, more and more people will have been exposed, recover, and develop an immunity. I strongly believe keeping Rt in sub R1 territory but I also think we're better off at R.9 rather than R.6 because:

1) it increases the rate of building to heard immunity in which a vaccine isn't even necessary, all the while keeping hospitalization rates low enough the health industry can stay on top of it.
2) when the second wave comes, more of us will be immune.
3) the more of us that are immune, the more we can open things up and keep Rt sub 1.

Also, those Rt numbers keep being updated even for days or weeks ago. I too have been following Texas closely since I live here. There was a time when Rtlive showed Texas at R.72. It now shows that it was never below R.89. Furthermore, it currently shows that Texas was at R.92 when the "shelter ended" (it's actually a limited reopening, not full) and that Texas still sits at R.92. These numbers do lag several days though so it may very well show something different in a week but it's hard for me to get worked up when the data currently shows pretty good stability and we're 22 days into this limited reopening.I've long been a proponent of allowing this virus burn as hot as we can tolerate as long as vulnerable populations are sufficiently protected. It's a reasonable strategy to gain maximum economic output and so-called herd immunity. Herd immunity is a very important goal to move toward while we develop a vaccine.....no doubt.
Yes, people are going to die. There is no avoiding this. But I would like to mention that hundreds of thousands of Americans have sacrificed their lives to protect life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for others. This is no different. I'm not talking about sending throngs of Americans into a needless bloodbath.....we've done pretty good job of avoiding situations like this on the battlefield. However, LIFE demands risk, LIBERTY demands risk and certainly the PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS demands risk. We cannot be timid and we cannot be stupid.


I get what you're saying but need to point out one more thing. Even if we keep Rt at .99 from hence forward...

That's a decreasing and china flu defeating number.

Yes some will die. Perhaps even me. I'm not old but I do battle some of the health conditions they talk about. But when I see that over 99% of those under 60 who get it survive...

Let those that are worried isolate from the rest on their own choice. Isolate nursing homes.

The rest of us need to move on.

And do what it takes to keep Rt sub R1.

ArmySooner
Administrator


Joined: Sun Aug 12th, 2007
Location: Principal's Office
Posts: 11356
Country of Origin: Potawatomi Nation
Signature: Pookie Poo
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 11:47 am

Quote

Reply
My son virtually graduated from Norman High. Way to go Nathan (Nate Dog}.

You could have heard us scream for blocks when his picture of his came up.

Way to go Nathan. NHS class of 2020.

StatesEye
Member
 

Joined: Mon Aug 27th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 1122
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 12:04 pm

Quote

Reply
ArmySooner wrote: My son virtually graduated from Norman High. Way to go Nathan (Nate Dog}.

You could have heard us scream for blocks when his picture of his came up.

Way to go Nathan. NHS class of 2020.Congrats, Army!

Bummer to miss out on most of the spring festivities during senior year, though......and then not getting to walk across the stage?????? smh


Fly
Member
 

Joined: Sat Sep 3rd, 2016
Location:  
Posts: 1003
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 01:21 pm

Quote

Reply
The day will come & we will look at this in the past. We will tell our kids & grand kids about it. We have
learned much % there is still much more to be learned. No
reason to play a blame game as this is a new different thing then we have had to combat. But we will all come out of
this in a better way on knowing we beat it, & how to beat
it.
Fly:ou:

tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sat May 23rd, 2020 04:08 pm

Quote

Reply
StatesEye wrote:
tbmguy wrote: Stateseye, I too expect a second wave but there's one thing I think you're missing. As this thing carries along, more and more people will have been exposed, recover, and develop an immunity. I strongly believe keeping Rt in sub R1 territory but I also think we're better off at R.9 rather than R.6 because:

1) it increases the rate of building to heard immunity in which a vaccine isn't even necessary, all the while keeping hospitalization rates low enough the health industry can stay on top of it.
2) when the second wave comes, more of us will be immune.
3) the more of us that are immune, the more we can open things up and keep Rt sub 1.

Also, those Rt numbers keep being updated even for days or weeks ago. I too have been following Texas closely since I live here. There was a time when Rtlive showed Texas at R.72. It now shows that it was never below R.89. Furthermore, it currently shows that Texas was at R.92 when the "shelter ended" (it's actually a limited reopening, not full) and that Texas still sits at R.92. These numbers do lag several days though so it may very well show something different in a week but it's hard for me to get worked up when the data currently shows pretty good stability and we're 22 days into this limited reopening.I've long been a proponent of allowing this virus burn as hot as we can tolerate as long as vulnerable populations are sufficiently protected. It's a reasonable strategy to gain maximum economic output and so-called herd immunity. Herd immunity is a very important goal to move toward while we develop a vaccine.....no doubt.
Yes, people are going to die. There is no avoiding this. But I would like to mention that hundreds of thousands of Americans have sacrificed their lives to protect life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for others. This is no different. I'm not talking about sending throngs of Americans into a needless bloodbath.....we've done pretty good job of avoiding situations like this on the battlefield. However, LIFE demands risk, LIBERTY demands risk and certainly the PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS demands risk. We cannot be timid and we cannot be stupid.


And just like that RTlive update this morning, Texas is now above R1. Back to the, need to role things back. :-\

formulaS
Member


Joined: Tue Feb 3rd, 2015
Location:  
Posts: 254
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sun May 24th, 2020 01:14 am

Quote

Reply
tbmguy wrote:
StatesEye wrote:
tbmguy wrote: Stateseye, I too expect a second wave but there's one thing I think you're missing. As this thing carries along, more and more people will have been exposed, recover, and develop an immunity. I strongly believe keeping Rt in sub R1 territory but I also think we're better off at R.9 rather than R.6 because:

1) it increases the rate of building to heard immunity in which a vaccine isn't even necessary, all the while keeping hospitalization rates low enough the health industry can stay on top of it.
2) when the second wave comes, more of us will be immune.
3) the more of us that are immune, the more we can open things up and keep Rt sub 1.

Also, those Rt numbers keep being updated even for days or weeks ago. I too have been following Texas closely since I live here. There was a time when Rtlive showed Texas at R.72. It now shows that it was never below R.89. Furthermore, it currently shows that Texas was at R.92 when the "shelter ended" (it's actually a limited reopening, not full) and that Texas still sits at R.92. These numbers do lag several days though so it may very well show something different in a week but it's hard for me to get worked up when the data currently shows pretty good stability and we're 22 days into this limited reopening.I've long been a proponent of allowing this virus burn as hot as we can tolerate as long as vulnerable populations are sufficiently protected. It's a reasonable strategy to gain maximum economic output and so-called herd immunity. Herd immunity is a very important goal to move toward while we develop a vaccine.....no doubt.
Yes, people are going to die. There is no avoiding this. But I would like to mention that hundreds of thousands of Americans have sacrificed their lives to protect life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for others. This is no different. I'm not talking about sending throngs of Americans into a needless bloodbath.....we've done pretty good job of avoiding situations like this on the battlefield. However, LIFE demands risk, LIBERTY demands risk and certainly the PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS demands risk. We cannot be timid and we cannot be stupid.


And just like that RTlive update this morning, Texas is now above R1. Back to the, need to role things back. :-


I did a brief dive into the code driving their model, and unless I missed something, rt.live does not account for the following...

1) increased testing. if you increase the percentage of testing, the positive cases should be increasing by the same percentage or more if the Rt is increasing... this does not appear to be occurring

2) positive cases do not equal one individual. a lot of states (including Oklahoma) are reporting multiple positive tests of the same individual as multiple cases.

3) hot spot testing. oversampling of a particular area of a state.

4) backfilling. not reporting the cases in a timely manner and then dumping them all at once.

5) antibody testing. some states are reporting positive antibody tests as new cases even though those individuals are no longer contagious.

tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sun May 24th, 2020 01:24 am

Quote

Reply
formulaS wrote:
tbmguy wrote:
StatesEye wrote:
tbmguy wrote: Stateseye, I too expect a second wave but there's one thing I think you're missing. As this thing carries along, more and more people will have been exposed, recover, and develop an immunity. I strongly believe keeping Rt in sub R1 territory but I also think we're better off at R.9 rather than R.6 because:

1) it increases the rate of building to heard immunity in which a vaccine isn't even necessary, all the while keeping hospitalization rates low enough the health industry can stay on top of it.
2) when the second wave comes, more of us will be immune.
3) the more of us that are immune, the more we can open things up and keep Rt sub 1.

Also, those Rt numbers keep being updated even for days or weeks ago. I too have been following Texas closely since I live here. There was a time when Rtlive showed Texas at R.72. It now shows that it was never below R.89. Furthermore, it currently shows that Texas was at R.92 when the "shelter ended" (it's actually a limited reopening, not full) and that Texas still sits at R.92. These numbers do lag several days though so it may very well show something different in a week but it's hard for me to get worked up when the data currently shows pretty good stability and we're 22 days into this limited reopening.I've long been a proponent of allowing this virus burn as hot as we can tolerate as long as vulnerable populations are sufficiently protected. It's a reasonable strategy to gain maximum economic output and so-called herd immunity. Herd immunity is a very important goal to move toward while we develop a vaccine.....no doubt.
Yes, people are going to die. There is no avoiding this. But I would like to mention that hundreds of thousands of Americans have sacrificed their lives to protect life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for others. This is no different. I'm not talking about sending throngs of Americans into a needless bloodbath.....we've done pretty good job of avoiding situations like this on the battlefield. However, LIFE demands risk, LIBERTY demands risk and certainly the PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS demands risk. We cannot be timid and we cannot be stupid.


And just like that RTlive update this morning, Texas is now above R1. Back to the, need to role things back. :-


I did a brief dive into the code driving their model, and unless I missed something, rt.live does not account for the following...

1) increased testing. if you increase the percentage of testing, the positive cases should be increasing by the same percentage or more if the Rt is increasing... this does not appear to be occurring

2) positive cases do not equal one individual. a lot of states (including Oklahoma) are reporting multiple positive tests of the same individual as multiple cases.

3) hot spot testing. oversampling of a particular area of a state.

4) backfilling. not reporting the cases in a timely manner and then dumping them all at once.

5) antibody testing. some states are reporting positive antibody tests as new cases even though those individuals are no longer contagious.


I do remember hearing on the news a week or so ago that Texas had started targeting certain places where a positive test is more likely.

Anyway, I had thought their model was trying to compensate for 1, 3, and 4 and from what I've seen of 5, should be small enough to not have huge effects on the data.

I read another article today that pointed to El Paso, Amarillo, DFW area, and parts of Houston as being hot spots and went on to say when diving further into the data, it's mainly nursing homes, jails, and meat packing plants. It would really be nice to have good Rt modeling that was a bit more localized than by state... Texas is big. In any case, according to Rtlive, Texas is state with the fasted spreading china flu.

StatesEye
Member
 

Joined: Mon Aug 27th, 2007
Location:  
Posts: 1122
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sun May 24th, 2020 03:12 am

Quote

Reply
The sudden jump in Rt in Texas does not correlate with the numbers I follow at https://covid-19.direct/state/TX....not unless there is a 10-day lag. After my rant yesterday, I looked at Texas data again. Texas (in metro areas and overall) showed a marked increase last week. Since then, we are back in decline. (y)(y)


Last edited on Sun May 24th, 2020 03:12 am by StatesEye

tbmguy
Member
 

Joined: Fri Dec 8th, 2017
Location:  
Posts: 420
Country of Origin: 
Signature: 
Status:  Offline
Mana: 
 Posted: Sun May 24th, 2020 03:27 am

Quote

Reply
StatesEye wrote:
The sudden jump in Rt in Texas does not correlate with the numbers I follow at https://covid-19.direct/state/TX....not unless there is a 10-day lag. After my rant yesterday, I looked at Texas data again. Texas (in metro areas and overall) showed a marked increase last week. Since then, we are back in decline. (y)(y)




That's a cool sight. I like that it breaks down MUCH more regionally than just state. I didn't see any Rt info though. Still think that's the most important number. FWIW, the daily growth rate for where I live is the lowest it's been since it started... whatever that means.


 Current time is 06:58 am
Page:  First Page Previous Page  ...  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  Next Page Last Page  




Powered by WowBB 1.7 - Copyright © 2003-2006 Aycan Gulez